日本学者:全球经济复苏至少需要1-2年的时间

在临沂客户端2020-05-07阅读次数:4734

日本学者:疫情引发的全球经济衰退远超金融危机和日本大地震

2020年,新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球,世界经济陷入停摆。这是一场史无前例的全球危机,全球经济正面临着需求供给双重冲击,任何经济体都难以独善其身。值此变局关键时刻,凤凰网财经联合上海交通大学上海高级金融学院、北京大学国家发展研究院以“全球经济与政策选择”为主题,邀请政商学企界嘉宾通过线上形式解析全球经济面临的机遇与挑战。

突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情将如何改变世界格局?与2008年金融危机又有什么区别?在5月7日以“全球经济与决策选择”的凤凰连线中,Glo-cal政策研究所代表理事、日本大和综研顾问川村雄介详细比较了2008年金融危机、2011年日本大地震后引发的危机以及本次新冠病毒危机,他直言,新冠病毒危机是“最严重和前所未有的”,之所以给出如此判断,主要基于三点原因:

首先,人类历史上第一次遭遇新冠病毒,我们还未找到有效的方法来战胜它;其次,几乎无一例外,没有国家或地区能够避免这场灾难;第三,我们无法预测其结束的确切日期。此外,我们还必须为第二波新冠病毒传播或其突变的新冠病毒做好准备。

川村雄介表示,新冠病毒危机让欧洲陷入了严重的经济衰退,美国也处于悲惨境地。他预测,美国和欧洲将陷入-3%或-4%的负增长,美国GDP增长率下降幅度将高达40%。而中国在衰退的程度和复苏的速度相对于欧洲、美国和日本,看起来都要好得多。

川村雄介指出,“新冠病毒根本不是地区性的悲剧,而是全球性的灾难,这使得国际合作极为困难。在当前新冠病毒危机下,人员和资产的流动被冻结,经济急剧下滑,尤其是对旅游和餐饮服务业的影响巨大。此外,恶化的全球经济打击了商业部门,尤其是在出口和投资方面;与2008年金融危机相比,当前的经济衰退更为严重,因为我们的政策措施空间非常有限。”

川村雄介认为,“这次危机不是由资产负债表衰退引发的。新冠病毒敏锐地击中损益表。这场危机始于需求下降,以至销售量几乎降到零的水平;而2008年金融危机是货币流动和资金流动停止,经济衰退速度相对缓慢。”

“最糟糕的是,最近4年里世界经济的情况更为恶化了。在这几个月里,全球经济中只有20% - 30%在运转,情况糟糕到许多公司和个体经营者都在倒闭。即使是健全的公司也要承担起从零开始启动市场的负担。此外,许多国家的预算和财政状况正在恶化。新冠病毒对全球经济都造成了严重的危害。”川村雄介说道。

川村雄介还重点分析了此次新冠病毒危机给日本经济带来的影响。他表示,即使是短期情形,日本2020年的实际GDP增长率也将低至-4.5%。这场危机对日本经济的影响最终可能会超过2008年的全球金融危机和2011年日本大地震。日本和世界(其他国家)都无法避免经济衰退或萧条。

川村雄介表示,“自今年年初以来,日本的消费量一直在急剧下降,几乎是直线下降。一个显著的影响是中国赴日游客人数的下降。当减少100万中国游客时,日本估计会损失2500亿日元的国内消费量。根据短期的预测场景,疫情将在6月左右得到控制,消费的总量将限制在7.6万亿日元左右,而从长期的预测场景来看,流行病将持续到2020年末,消费的总额将限制在14.0万亿日元左右。”

以下为川村雄介发言实录:

Hello, Ladies and Gentlemen, I’m Yusuke Kawamura from Japan.

女士们,先生们,大家好,我是来自日本的川村雄介。

And I’m so grateful that I’m given such an opportunity to take part in this prestigious program as IFENG Summit 2020.

我很高兴有机会参加2020年凤凰财经云峰会这一享负盛名的活动。

And I really wish to discuss with you on-line.

我真的很希望和各位在网上讨论。

At the outside, I would like to refer to something about that crisis.

首先我想先谈一下这次危机。

After getting into 21st. century, we have already faced and experienced three times in terms of huge disasters caught up with us.

进入21世纪后,我们已经面临并经历了三次巨大的灾难。

For instance, in 2008, we had a year of Lehman shock and in 2011 in Japan we had Great Earthquake, and now we are disturbing against this Corona crisis.

例如,在2008年,我们经历了一年的雷曼冲击事件;在2011年,日本发生了大地震;现在,我们正在为这场新冠新冠病毒危机而烦恼。

And within only 20 years, we have had to face such catastrophe 3 times, which means we should be ready for such crisis every time, every 6-7 years.

在短短20年的时间里,我们已经面临了3次面对如此巨大的灾难,这意味着我们每一次都应该为这样6-7年一次的危机做好准备,每6-7年一次。

So among these, Corona crisis is the worst one and unparalleled one, I guess.

在这些危机中,我认为新冠病毒危机是最严重的、前所未有的。

Regarding these, I can raise 3 reasons of why is that.

关于这点,我可以提出三个理由。

Firstly, Corona is a first encountering enemy in long lasting human being’s history, in that we do not yet find effective ways to defeat it.

首先,人类历史上第一次遭遇新冠病毒,我们还没有未找到有效的方法来战胜它。

Secondly, there is almost no exceptional countries or regions which can evade this catastrophe.

其次,几乎无一例外的是,没有国家或地区能够避免这场灾难,无一例外。

Corona is not at all regional tragedy but global disaster.

新冠病毒根本不是地区性的悲剧,而是全球性的灾难。

This makes international cooperation extremely difficult.

这使得国际合作极为困难。

Thirdly, and most irritating factor is that we cannot anticipate exact date of its ending.

第三,最令我们人恼火的是,我们无法预测其它结束的确切日期。

Furthermore, we must prepare for the Second wave of Corona or mutated ones.

此外,我们必须为第二波新冠病毒或发生突变的新冠病毒传播做好准备。

From another point of view, I would like to point out that Corona crisis is not financial driven crisis but rather direct attack to real economy.

从另一角度来看,我想指出,新冠病毒危机不是由金融驱动的危机,而是对实体经济的直接冲击。

It is not initiated by balance sheet recession.

这次危机不是由资产负债表衰退引发的。

Corona keenly hits profit and loss statements.

新冠新冠病毒敏锐地击中损益表。

In other words, it began with demand depression so much as sales are melting to almost zero level.

换句话说,这场危机始于需求下降,以至销售量几乎降到零水平。

I just quickly review Lehman shock.

我仅简单回顾一下雷曼事件危机。

Under that shock, money flow, fund flow stopped, and recession proceeded relatively slowly.

在那次冲击下,货币流动和资金流动停止,经济衰退速度相对缓慢。

Regarding Japan’s economy, global financial collapse pushed business sector, mainly export and investment, downward sharply.

就日本经济而言,全球金融崩溃导致以出口和投资为主的商业部门业绩急剧下滑。

In case of current Corona crisis, flow of humans and assets sort of substantive beings are frozen and economy has taken a sharp decline for the worse so rapidly, especially influencing sightseeing and food service industry.

在当前新冠病毒危机下,人员和资产的流动被冻结,经济急剧下滑,尤其是对旅游和餐饮服务业的影响巨大。

Moreover, inhibitive economic policy for preventing the pandemic of Corona badly effects household sector.

此外,为防止新冠病毒流行而采取的抑制性经济政策对家庭部门也造成了严重影响。

Also, exacerbated global economy hits business sector, particularly in terms of export and investment.

此外,恶化的全球经济打击了商业部门,尤其是在出口和投资方面。

Compared to Lehman crisis, current depression is severer with respect to the facts that we have very limited rooms of policy measures, negative impact to supply chains is huge and business sectors owe excessive debt burden.

与雷曼危机相比,当前的经济衰退更为严重,因为我们的政策措施空间非常有限,对供应链的负面影响巨大,而且企业部门债务负担过重。

This chart 1 shows Forecast of Real GDP growth rate of Japan, US, Europe and China.

该图表1显示了日本、美国、欧洲和中国的实际GDP增长率预测。

Blue line indicates the case of short time recovery, whereas red line shows the case of prolonged recovery.

蓝线表示短时间恢复的情形,红线表示长时间恢复的情形。

We see the most serious situation in Europe.

我们看到了欧洲的情况最为严重。

US is also in dismal.

美国也处于悲惨境地。

Japan is so far, just slightly better than these two, but figure of the graph is very much similar.

日本到目前为止,只是略好于这两个国家(和地区),但图形是非常相似的。

China looks much better both in the degree of decline and speed of recovery.

中国在衰退的程度和复苏的速度上看起来都要好得多。

The extent to which the Corona epidemic may affect Japan’s economy are shown on this panel.

这个图表显示了新冠流行病对日本经济的影响程度。

The short-term scenario for the time it will take to return to normal sees GDP declining by around 24.4 trillion yen in comparison to what Japan’s real GDP would be, if this problem had not occurred.

如果日本经济可以在短期内恢复,与没有出现危机情况下实际GDP相比,日本的GDP将会下降约24.4万亿日元。

As for long-term scenario, it expects it to be down by 41.1 trillion yen.

如果经济在长期内才能恢复,预计GDP将减少41.1万亿日元。

Even the short-term scenario indicates Japan’s real GDP growth rate in 2020 will be as low as -4.5%.

即使是短期情形,日本2020年的实际GDP增长率也将低至-4.5%。

The US and Europe are also expected to fall into negative growth at the -3% or -4% level, while China is expected to fall significantly below last year’s figure.

预计美国和欧洲也将陷入-3%或-4%的负增长,增长率为-3%或-4%,而中国的GDP也将大大低于去年的水平。

The worst thing is that the most recent 4 years, the position or world economy is much worse.

最糟糕的是,最近4年里,世界经济的情况更为恶化了。

In case of Japan, we will see the -20% GDP growth in this year.

以日本为例,今年GDP增长率将降低20%。

As for the US, as bad as 40% of decline of GDP growth we should see in this year of 2020.

至于美国,我们预测其2020年的GDP增长率下降幅度将达40%。

So much as neither Japan nor the world will be able to avoid a recession or depression.

甚至于日本和世界(其他国家)都无法避免经济衰退或萧条。

In 2009, immediately after the global financial crisis of 2008, Lehman shock, Japan’s real GDP was at -5.4% compared to the previous year.

在2009年,也就是在2008年全球金融危机(雷曼危机事件)爆发后不久,日本的实际GDP同比下降了5.4%。

Now, If the risk scenario becomes a reality, year to year declines in the GDP growth rate will continue for five consecutive quarters, starting with the Oct-Dec period of 2019.

现在,如果风险预测成为现实,从2019年10月至12月开始,GDP增长率将连续5个季度出现同比下降。

The GDP growth rate of the entire year of 2020 would then be expected to come in at -7.6%.

2020年全年的GDP增长率预计为-7.6%。

This is the largest decline the Japanese economy has ever experienced since calendar year statistics first became available in 1956.

这是自1956年首次提供年统计数据以来,日本经济经历的最大跌幅。

The economic impact of this crisis may ultimately exceed that of the global financial crisis of 2008.

这场危机对经济的影响最终可能会超过2008年的全球金融危机。

Japan has been experiencing sharp descent, almost nosediving decline in consumption since the beginning of this year.

自今年年初以来,日本的消费量一直在急剧下降,几乎是直线下降。

For example, one remarkable influence is decline of the number of Chinese tourists to Japan.

例如,一个显著的影响是中国赴日游客人数的下降。

When 1 million Chinese visitors decrease, Japan’s domestic consumption is estimated to lose 250 billion yen.

当减少100万中国游客时,日本估计会损失2500亿日元的国内消费量。

According to the short-term scenario, that is, epidemic will be brought under control by around June, the amount to which consumption will be limited totals around 7.6 trillion yen, whereas under the long-term scenario, namely the epidemic lasts through the whole year of 2020, the amount to which consumption would be limited totals about 14.0 trillion yen.

根据短期的预测场景,流行病将在6月左右得到控制,消费的总量将限制在7.6万亿日元左右,而从长期的预测场景来看,流行病将持续到2020年末,消费的总额将限制在14.0万亿日元左右。

Government of Japan takes 2-phase approach for the countermeasures toward Corona problems.

日本政府对新冠病毒问题采取两阶段对策。

Phase-1 is an urgent support measures and Phase-2 is for aiming V-shaped recovery.

第一阶段是紧急的支持措施,第二阶段的目标是V型恢复。第二阶段是针对V型的经济恢复目标。

As to Phase-1 countermeasures, No. 1 and No. 3 are in this category for instance.

至于第一阶段的对策,例如第1和第3条就属于这一类别。

Measures to prevent the spread of infection, etc.

预防传染病传播的措施等。

And No. 3 endow endorse cash payments to all households in Japan.

第三,为日本所有家庭提供现金。

This is a relief measure along with, really a as well as the stimulus 2-year payment in a contemptionto this.

这实际上是一种分期付款的两年期付款方式。

And No. 2 and No. 4 lies on long term measures.

第二和第四条是长期措施。

No. 2 “Measures in support of business. “and No. 4 “Demand stimulation measures”.

第二条是支持企业的措施。第四条是刺激需求的措施。

Of course, these four are a bit overlapped.

当然,这四点有些重叠。

But when we are around the ,we are proceeding with the 117 trillion yen special budget.

但当我们…,我们正在进行117万亿日元的特别预算。

This chart unfortunately made in Japanese.

可惜这张图表是日文的。

This means the government.

这个代表政府。

This is some special institution or a Japanese government-owned special institution named Japan Finance Corporation.

这是一个特殊的机构,是日本政府所拥有的特殊机构,名为日本政策金融公库。

And this means designated financial institutions which have an authority to lend money and the guarantee of the Japanese government to the SMEs.

这个它是被指定的金融机构,它有权向中小企业提供贷款,并得到日本政府的担保。

And this is a borrower such as SMEs and individuals.

这个是中小企业和个人等借款人。

We have a number of SMEs public financing programs as well as private loans and investments.

我们有许多为中小企业提供的公共融资项目以及私人贷款和投资项目。

Among those, I would like to introduce this case.

其中,我想介绍一下这个案例。

Facing the crisis, Japanese state -owned financial institutions are aggressively coping with current situation, especially for supporting SMEs.

面对危机,日本国有金融机构积极应对当前形势,尤其加大了是对中小企业的支持力度。

Japan’s government supplies, invests and subsidies to the JFC.

日本政府为日本政策金融公库JFC提供供应、投资和补贴。

JFC has two ways to inject funds to SMEs.

日本政策金融公库JFC有两种向中小企业注资的方式。

One is, apart from this chart, to lend money directly to SMEs as a usual SME bank.

除了这张图表所展示的之外,一种方法是像通常的中小企业银行一样,直接向中小企业发放贷款。

There’s a way,the other way is shown on this panel, namely through the designated banks such as Shoko Chukin Bank as this chart.

此图表上展示了一种方法,另一种方式是如图表所示,即通过指定的银行如Shoko Chukin银行(向中小企业发放贷款)。

JFPC provides funds, compensates loss which is burdened by Shoko Chukin and subsidies interests payments.

日本政策金融公库JPC提供资金,补偿Shoko Chukin银行负担的损失,并补贴利息支出。

Then, Shoko Chukin provides lending money as special loan or subsidizing interest payments to SMEs.

然后,Shoko Chukin银行向中小企业提供贷款,作为特殊贷款或利息补贴。

So now what comes next is a question.

接下来将发生什么则是一个问题。

Corona contagion will be ceased hopefully as early as this coming June or summer, may be the September.

新冠病毒的蔓延有希望最早在今年6月或夏季就停止,也可能是9月。

But our economy and business will still face very serious situation.

但我们的经济和商业仍将面临非常严峻的形势。

Only 20-30% in global economy is running for these several months, so much bad as many companies and individuals are in collapse.

在这几个月里,全球经济中只有20% - 30%在运转,情况糟糕到许多公司和个体经营者都在倒闭。

Even sound companies should bear burden to boot markets from zero level.

即使是健全的公司也要承担起从零开始启动市场的负担。

Also,financial markets and financial institutions, both private and national, which have been supporting those, are so much exhausted.

另外,一直以来给予他们支持的私有和国有的金融市场和金融机构也非常疲惫。

Adding to these, budgets and financial condition of many countries are worsening.

此外,许多国家的预算和财政状况正在恶化。

As I told, Japan’ government is to take 2-phase countermeasure and after summer, realization of phase-2 measures is going to be critically important.

正如我所说,日本政府将采取两阶段的对策,夏季过后,采取第二阶段的措施将是至关重要的。

Bank of Japan adopts very aggressive financial relaxation for stimulating domestic economy.

日本银行为了刺激国内经济,采取了非常激进的金融宽松政策。

However, Corona calamity has scattered about severe harmful effects both to global and domestic economy.

但新冠病毒对全球经济和日本国内经济都造成了严重的危害。

So, we need more time to return to normal temperature and it is very tough to make our economy to growth trajectory.

因此,我们需要更多时间才能恢复到“正常温度”,要使我们的经济步入增长轨道非常困难。

Chart-6 shows over-all picture of Corona countermeasures in current Japan.

图表6显示了当前日本应对新冠病毒对策的全貌。

As a result, it will take at least 1 year, and almost 2 years will need to recovery of global economy.

因此,全球经济复苏至少需要1-2年的时间。

Furthermore, I am anxious to the second wave or third wave of COVID-19.

此外,我担心COVID-19的第二波或第三波蔓延。

In the case of the pandemic of Spanish influenza just ended 100 years ago in 1917-1920, impact of the second wave was much more disastrous.

100年前结束的西班牙流感大流行,发生于1917年至1920年,其第二波蔓延的影响要严重得多。

I just pray for dramatic medical improvement.

我只能祈祷医疗能有显著的改善。

So critical issue is what comes next under such situation. Among other anxieties, I would like to point out 2 apprehensions.

在这种情况下,接下来会发生什么,这是一个非常关键的问题。在其他所有的忧虑中,我想指出两个。

First is that due to seclusion of many countries, international exchange becomes stagnated, which is retrogression of globalization of people, culture and economy.

首先,由于许多国家的隔离政策,国际交流陷入停滞,这是人类、文化和经济全球化的倒退。

Second is that by some biased approach of interrogation of Corona pandemic, there appears some sign of, shall I say, criminal hunt like behaviors.

二是通过对新冠病毒大流行的某种偏颇的讯问方式,出现了一些类似追捕犯罪行为的迹象。

Although we definitely have to cooperate internationally, we should hear advocates saying that China attributes to Corona pandemic and should bear responsibility with other Asian people including Japanese, because from western people’s eye, Asian people looks almost the same thing one way or another.

虽然我们一定要在国际上进行合作,但我们也会听到一些人将新冠病毒大流行归因于中国,指出中国应该与包括日本人在内的其他亚洲人(一起)承担责任,因为在西方人看来,亚洲人看起来几乎是一样的。

Of course, most westerners, levelheaded, smart westerners never say such things, but unfortunately, we see many discriminations against Asian people and above- all key persons at Governments sometimes refer to this.

当然,大多数头脑冷静、聪明的西方人从不说这种话,但不幸的是,我们看到许多人歧视亚洲人,尤其是政府中的一些关键人物有时都提到这一点。

I am really concerned about their comments.

我真的很担心他们的评论。

While by the way, needless to say, and I would like to emphasize that we can see not only negative aspects of Corona but also positive side of it.

顺便说一句,毋庸讳言,我想强调的是,我们不仅可以看到新冠病毒的消极方面,而且可以看到它的积极方面。

We will attach more importance to environment in pursuing our prosperity, both in culture, life style and economic activities so that we can live with earth.

我们在追求文化、生活方式或是经济活动的繁荣的过程中,将更加重视环境,这样我们才能与地球共存。

In order to realize this, we are now developing economic networks without physical man power, namely, utilizing ICTs and AIs.

为了实现这一点,我们现在正在开发无需人力的经济网络,即利用信息通信技术和人工智能。

So I’m always fascinated by the very speedy progress in China’s society in terms of AI or ICT or digital.

因此,我一直着迷于中国社会在AI或ICT或数字化方面的飞速发展。

Compared to China, Japan has been more, shall I say, a kind of another society.

与中国相比,日本更像是另一种社会。

So after Corona, I think Japan will speed to catch up the highly advanced ICT society like China.

所以在新冠病毒危机之后,我认为日本将会加速追赶中国这样高度发达的ICT社会。

Supposedly, we can expect emergence of unprecedented new industries and enterprises.

按理说,也许我们可以期待出现前所未有的新产业和新企业。

This gives countries struggling population decrease unexpected solution.

这给了为苦恼于人口减少的国家提供了意想不到的解决方案。

I mean the population decreasing country will have a much better opportunity by using these.

我的意思是通过这些解决方案,人口减少的国家将有更好的机会。

So what should we do? According to a famous epigram of crisis management, during normal days one must prepare with pessimism, and at a critical moment he should confront the crisis optimistically.

那么我们应该怎么做呢?危机管理有一句著名的警句,在正常的日子里,人们必须以悲观的态度来准备,在危机时刻,人们应该乐观地面对。

So now let me think pessimistically.

所以现在让我悲观一些。

Above all, most anxious future is international disorder, global chaos which may trigger severe conflicts among nations.

极为重要的是,未来最令人焦虑的情形是国际混乱和全球混乱,这些可能引发严重的国家间冲突。

To put it plainly, it is a nightmare that the West and Asia tends to become hostile each other.

简而言之,西方和亚洲倾向于相互敌对,这将是一场噩梦。

Japan has been pro-America since the war for about 80 years.

自二战以来,日本一直亲美约80年。

People say when US sneezes, Japan catches cold, so much like that.

人们说当美国打喷嚏时,日本就会着凉,确实就像这样。

In many material areas such as economy, culture, diplomacy and maybe peace keeping policy are strongly influenced by the US.

日本在许多物质领域,如经济、文化、外交,也许还有维和政策,都深受美国的影响。

On the other hand, Japan has a really a long history with China for more than 2000- years, I guess.

另一方面,日本和中国有2000多年的交往外交史。

One of my favorite writing is Houhan Shu, The History of Later Han, in which ancient Japan is referred to.

我最喜欢的一本书是《后汉书》,里面提到了古代日本。

Unfortunately, we had regrettable age after the modern era.

不幸的是,在跨入现代之后,我们经历了一个令人遗憾的时代。

But I feel really delightful to see the recent advance of good relationship of the 2 countries.

但我很高兴看到两国关系最近取得的进展。

I am confident of more intimate exchanges in many areas between these 2 countries.

我相信这两个国家在许多领域会有更密切的交流。

This course of action will not change.

这一行动方针不会改变。

And we must never brake on this movement.

我们决不能阻止这一行动。

We had better create more in-depth relationship, in a good sense, mutually dependent relationship.

我们最好能够创建更深入的关系,从良好的意义上讲,相互依存的关系。

Even in the middle of Corona crisis, there are number of Chinese people in charge of Japan-China projects, some of whom I met in duringTokyo last January to February.

即使在新冠病毒危机期间,仍有许多中国人负责日中项目,其中一些人是我去年1月至2月在东京遇见到的。

I have asserted for a long time that Western biased view of world history should be a bit reconsidered. I do not mean that Westerner is wrong or West and East shall snarl at each other.

我一直主张,西方人应该重新考虑一下对世界历史的偏见。我并不是说西方人错了,或者西方和东方应该恶语相向。

We must cooperate with them.

我们必须与他们合作。

But our future mainly depends on Asia.

但我们的未来主要取决于亚洲。

Of course, it does never mean selfish and narrow- minded nationalism.

当然,这绝不意味着自私和狭隘的民族主义。

We must facilitate glocal, global and local driven society on earth.

我们必须促进全球本土化、全球化和本地化驱动的社会在地球上的发展。

In this context, I think, China and Japan should play key roles.

在这种情况下,我认为中国和日本应该发挥关键作用。

Finally, I express my belief that this destructive, nightmare-like Corona disaster makes us develop China-Japan relationship so as to emerge dream-like society in the world.

最后,我相信,正是这场毁灭性的新冠病毒灾难,将推动中日关系的发展,使世界出现一个梦一般的理想社会。

I have thought deeply about the words that only a narrow strip of water lies between Japan and China.

历来中日一衣带水,我对这句话的感慨颇深。我曾经深刻地思考过这样一句话:中日两国一衣带水。

I do appreciate for your corporation.

感谢你们的合作。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

来源:凤凰网财经

(编辑:初见)
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